SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Wed Mar 09 2022 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts, a couple of tornadoes, and isolated hail are possible today from north Florida into eastern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... Two ongoing clusters of thunderstorms will likely persist through the day, posing a risk of damaging winds or a couple of tornadoes. One cluster is currently over the Big Bend region of FL, and will track across north FL this afternoon. One persistent supercell embedded within this cluster has shown occasional tornado potential. The air mass ahead of the storms is moist and moderately unstable, and convection is likely to continue eastward and offshore through the day. Low level winds will slowly weaken and veer in this area, so the extent of severe risk is uncertain. Nevertheless, given the mesoscale organization of the cluster and sufficient parameter space, will maintain the SLGT risk for this region. The second cluster of storms is over east-central GA along the primary surface boundary. These storms have weakened somewhat during the past couple of hours, but will be moving through a moist and unstable air mass over eastern SC this afternoon. Most model solutions indicate that this activity re-intensifies, with a potential for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Thunderstorms are also expected to re-develop late tonight over parts of southern AL/GA and the FL panhandle. However, these storms should be elevated above a relatively stable surface layer. Therefore it appears the risk of severe storms is quite limited. ..Hart/Lyons.. 03/09/2022
