SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Wed Mar 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds will be possible Thursday across parts of the northern Florida peninsula. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop much of the CONUS on Thursday. A shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will dig across the Southwest while a second shortwave traverses the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will maintain moderate southwesterly deep layer flow across much of the southern and eastern U.S. A surface front will extend from the western Gulf of Mexico toward the FL/GA border. The front is not expected to move much during the day across GA/FL, but convective outflows from ongoing and redeveloping diurnal convection will push the effective boundary southward across northern FL. ...Northern/Central FL... Elevated convection is expected at the beginning of the period along and to the north of the surface front. This activity will initially be maintained by a modest southwesterly low-level jet and moderate instability during the morning. Outflow from morning storms will propagate southward, acting as the effective surface front, and becoming a focus for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon hours. While lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, moderate vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt) and MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg should maintain at least transient organized convection. Low-level shear is expected to weaken through the day, with hodographs becoming less favorable for low-level rotation, while deep-layer boundary-parallel flow will mainly support clusters/bowing segments. The main hazard with convection through late afternoon will be strong to locally damaging wind gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2022
