SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/locally severe storms are forecast to affect portions of the Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley Sunday. A few strong wind gusts and marginal hail will be the primary risks. ...Synopsis... As a Rex-type blocking pattern resides over the western U.S. Sunday, amplification of eastern U.S. troughing is expected. Some of this amplification will be the result of a short-wave trough progged to dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region, eventually reaching the central Appalachians/Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to spread southward out of Canada across the northern and central U.S., while a baroclinic zone at the leading edge of this cooler Canadian air advances southward across the Plains and Midwest through the period. ...Illinois/Indiana south to the Tennessee Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Illinois Vicinity during the afternoon, as moderate afternoon destabilization occurs within the warm sector of the weakening surface low. With enhanced northwesterly flow aloft atop this region, a few organized/possibly severe storms are expected to evolve. If storm coverage can become sufficient, some potential for evolution into a southeastward-moving MCS appears to exist. As storms spread southeastward, toward/into the Tennessee Valley vicinity, locally strong wind gusts would likely accompany the strongest storms into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 05/13/2023
