SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail are possible this evening across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... An areas of high pressure is located across the Southeast, with west-northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Water vapor imagery shows a broad area of mid-level moisture located from the Great Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. At the surface, the northern edge of a moist airmass is present across north-central Missouri and south-central Illinois, where the RAP is showing moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the mid Mississippi Valley with the strongest storms located along a northwest-to-southeast gradient of instability from south-central Illinois into western Kentucky. The WSR-88D VWP at Paducah has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This, combined 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km will support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger multicells for a few more hours this evening...see MCD 796. Hail could also occur associated with the stronger updrafts. A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will also likely exist further west into north-central Missouri along a corridor of instability just to the north of the surface low. ..Broyles.. 05/15/2023
