SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Great Plains to southwest Arkansas this evening. Large hail should be the main threat in terms of coverage, with damaging winds also possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave trough that was partly responsible for early-day MCS over KS/OK has progressed to western MO-eastern OK. This feature continues to provide support for scattered, organized deep convection across western AR/southeast OK. 00z sounding from LZK supports this feature with 35kt westerly flow at 500mb. Observed lapse rates are not that steep but adequate buoyancy resides south of I-40 for the continuation of robust updrafts. Wind profiles suggest a few supercells are possible, but ongoing activity is decidedly mixed mode with clusters and short line segments. Farther southwest across the southern Plains, scattered severe convection persists ahead of the front, arcing from the Metroplex-Edwards Plateau-southeast NM. Several supercells are noted across southwest TX where MRMS data suggests very large hail has occurred with some of these updrafts. Additionally, the decayed remnants of an old weak MCV over northeast NM appear to be influencing convection across southeast NM. Long-term trends suggest this activity will continue to propagate southeast as the front advances into this portion of the southern High Plains. Hail continues to be the primary concern with this convection. ..Darrow.. 05/20/2023
