Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. It is possible this could include the evolution of at least one large, long-lived organized cluster of storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, from parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple of smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, may undergo substantive amplification while slowly progressing northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during this period. The lead embedded perturbation may be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. To the southwest of this cyclone, a cold front is forecast to surge southward through much of Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. It appears that the front will be preceded by a sharpening dryline near the Kansas/Missouri border area southwestward through central Texas by late afternoon, while a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air continues advecting east of the southeastern Great Plains through much of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley through southern Appalachians. Beneath this regime, moderately strong southwesterly low-level flow will contribute to low-level moisture return across the Mississippi Valley through the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians, but this may be complicated by the influence of remnant convection and convective outflow from areas upstream late Saturday through Saturday night. ...Southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, suggests that several remnant convective clusters may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. It is possible that destabilizing moist low-level inflow to the south and southwest of the southern-most activity may be sufficient to maintain or support re-intensification of convection east-southeastward through parts of the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys during the day. If this occurs, beneath a seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper jet, vertical shear may contribute to an organizing system capable of producing sustained damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, a perhaps more prominent signal persists in model output that a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating, near the western flank of modifying convective outflow and beneath the leading edge of the plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, may become a focus for renewed convective develop by Sunday afternoon. Initially in a corridor roughly across northeast/east central Missouri into west central Illinois, lift associated with warm advection and inflow of boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg may contribute to upscale growing convective development, with potential to organize into a southeastward propagating convective system. Given seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath dry mid-levels with very steep lapse rates, a strong cold pool may eventually evolve and pose a risk for sustained damaging wind gusts across parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024
SPC May 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
More from Fire WeatherMore posts in Fire Weather »
More from WeatherMore posts in Weather »