SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western portions of the central and northern Plains on Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Western Central/Northern Plains Vicinity... A similar pattern is expected on Sunday compared to the previous several days, with generally modest deep-layer flow amid a lower-amplitude regime. Nevertheless, potential for strong to isolated severe storms may be focused across western parts of the central and northern Plains vicinity, owing to weak shortwave impulses shifting east across the region. Vertical shear may be slightly stronger compared to Day 2/Saturday as a shortwave trough spreads east from the Rockies. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s to low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints along/east of a north to south oriented surface trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates over portions of the region will support weak to moderate destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon, with some potential for hail and strong gusts. Location of clusters of stronger storms will partly be influenced by convection across the region in the day's prior to Day 3/Sunday, though a corridor of stronger instability/moisture may overlap with better vertical shear over western KS/NE. If confidence increases in location of greater coverage of better organized storms, outlook upgrades may be needed in the coming days. Otherwise, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms appears possible. ..Leitman.. 05/26/2023
