Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... With a break in the eastern blocking pattern (by Day 5/Tuesday) that has persisted the past week or so, diurnal thunderstorm activity may shift further east across the Plains through the period. A tongue of seasonal boundary-layer moisture will stretch from the southern Plains to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. Some low-end severe potential may exist on Day 4/Monday across the northern Plains as a weak upper shortwave trough migrates northeast across the Dakotas. However, weak vertical shear and modest instability preclude a 15 percent delineation. Thereafter, a general lack of impactful synoptic features, and a persistent weak/low amplitude regime will limit severe potential for much of the period.
