Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 VALID 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG BELT OF WSWLY FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GREATLY HINGE ON THE DETAILS WITH REGARD TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EVOLUTION DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY /DAY 4-5/ PERIOD. WITH THAT STATED...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA OVER PARTS OF KS-OK ON THURSDAY /DAY 4/. A RENEWED ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA ON FRIDAY /DAY 5/ BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS SLIGHTLY LOWER --PRECLUDING A HIGHLIGHTED AREA AT THIS TIME. FARTHER NE...A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY /DAY 4-5/. BY SATURDAY /DAY 6/...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING TROUGH...BUT MAGNITUDE OF THREAT AND PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS PRECLUDE AN AREA HIGHLIGHT.
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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