SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western portions of the Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Hail and strong gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. ...Western Portions of the Plains... A couple of minor mid/upper shortwave impulses will migrate through the persistent, mostly weak flow/low-amplitude regime across the Plains on Sunday. The first shortwave will lift northeast across the central to the northern Plains, while the other moves across NM/TX. Vertical shear will be marginal across both areas, though some enhancement of 0-6 km effective shear is forecast from near the western KS/eastern CO vicinity southward across west TX. Weak low/midlevel flow will persist here, but vertically veering profiles with increasing winds in the 4-6 km range will support effective shear values around 25-30 kt. Similar to many days the past weak, the surface pattern will be characterized by southerly low-level flow along a surface trough extending north to south through the High Plains. This will maintain sufficient boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s F) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Strong heating will aid weak to moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500 J/kg north, to 2500 J/kg south). The best overlap of shear supporting organized, sustained convection with stronger instability will be from western KS into the TX Panhandle vicinity. Higher-based supercells initially may pose a risk for large hail and gusty outflow winds. Some potential for upscale growth during the evening is evident as an 850 mb low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 30 kt. Low-level shear will remain weak and boundary-layer moisture modest, generally limiting tornado potential. However, outflow boundaries from prior days convection may locally enhance low-level shear, and a couple of landspout tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Vertical shear and instability will weaken with northward extent into NE and the Dakotas, though a few strong storms producing hail and gusty winds will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/27/2023
