SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Monday. ...Northern Plains vicinity... A weak mid/upper shortwave trough will develop east across the northern Plains on Monday. Deep-layer flow will remain modest across the Plains, similar to the previous several days. A surface trough associated with a low over northern Ontario will shift east across the Dakotas. The surface trough will weaken with southward extent, with a rather nondescript surface patter over the southern Plains. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. With a lack of strong mid/upper level forcing and limited surface feature to focus convection, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across much of the Plains. Most of this activity will likely remain disorganized, though some steep lapse rates and weak vertical shear could support sporadic strong storms. Some increased severe potential could develop across parts of the Dakotas beneath the influence of the weak upper shortwave trough, and along the better defined surface trough. Hail and strong gusts would be the main hazards associated with this activity. ..Leitman.. 05/27/2023
