SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening from the Red River in extreme southern Oklahoma into portions of central/south-central Texas. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery suggests a weak mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across the southern Plains which is serving to suppress the height field across this region. 850mb flow is gradually veering across north TX as this feature shifts east. With time LLJ should increase into the Arklatex region. Several clusters of strong/severe convection have developed ahead of the short wave. The northern-most cluster is located along the Red River, coincident with the warm front draped across this region. This cluster of mixed-mode storms should propagate east, aided by the aforementioned LLJ as it focuses downstream. A secondary cluster of storms that developed east of the dryline will propagate into central TX over the next few hours. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited a substantial cap near 850mb so it's not entirely clear how far east this activity will remain severe. Given the large-scale support aloft, organized convection could easily extend into the I-35 corridor, or a bit east. A few discrete supercells have also developed over northeast Mexico into extreme southwest TX. This activity should propagate east of the international border, aided by the short wave. Several CAMs members suggest this activity will spread considerably into south-central TX where buoyancy is appreciable. Elsewhere, isolated strong/severe convection will linger this evening across the central High Plains and over portions of the interior northern Rockies. Some threat for gusty winds/hail may be noted this evening with this activity. ..Darrow.. 05/05/2023
