SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Mon May 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind damage will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as mid-level flow becomes south to south-southwesterly over much of the central High Plains. At the surface, a low will rapidly deepen across eastern Colorado. Southeasterly flow will advect low-level moisture into eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming, where surface dewpoints should be in the 50s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convection will develop in the higher terrain and move northeastward into the lower elevations. Forecast soundings in parts of northeast Colorado during the late afternoon have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be very steep, approaching 9.0 C/km in some areas. This should support severe storm development with supercells and isolated large hail. Wind damage may also occur, especially as the storms interact with the stronger instability in the lower elevations. The severe threat could persist through much of the evening. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will gradually move eastward into the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the region with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. A dryline is forecast to develop near the Texas-New Mexico state line by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop to the east of the dryline during the mid to late afternoon, moving east-northeastward across the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings to the east of the dryline at 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE generally between 2000 and 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 25 to 35 knots. This would be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. Isolated large hail and a localized threat for severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/08/2023
