MD 0100 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHERN ALABAMA…EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Areas affected...Southeast Mississippi...southern Alabama...extreme western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 250218Z - 250345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued by 03z for portions of the central Gulf Coast, including parts of southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and extreme western Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Surface low has moved inland across south-central LA and is forecast to track into west-central MS late this evening. LLJ will also translate inland and focus over northeast MS/northwest AL as the upstream low ejects toward the Arklatex. As a result, low-level trajectories are becoming more favorable for modified Gulf air mass to move onshore along the central Gulf Coast. Latest observational data suggests mid 60s surface dew points are about 50 mi south of Pascagoula with upper 60s observed at buoy 42040. This air mass should continue advancing inland and buoyancy will increase across southern MS/AL into the western FL Panhandle over the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is beginning to focus more across the mid-south region, isolated supercells should continue to evolve within the warm advection zone as it shifts east. Additionally, frontal squall line will also surge east into this region with embedded supercells. Tornado threat will increase as surface dew points rise through the mid 60s. New tornado watch will likely be issued by 03z. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 01/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31248949 31068762 30608722 30108766 30288960 31248949
