MD 1009 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Areas affected...Southern OK/North TX into the ArkLaTex region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 130752Z - 130915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated supercell development is possible later this
morning, with a threat of large hail and locally strong/damaging
gusts. Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...Recent elevated thunderstorm development has been noted
across northwest TX into south-central OK, to the north of an
outflow-reinforced surface boundary draped across parts of
central/north TX. With time, storm coverage is expected to increase
within a low-level warm advection regime, supported by a modestly
strong low-level jet. Ample elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg) to the north of the boundary will favor vigorous
updrafts, with strong effective shear (greater than 50 kt)
continuing to support the potential for organized convection.
Favorably elongated and veering wind profiles (even for somewhat
elevated updrafts) will support supercell potential later this
morning, with some clustering and upscale growth possible with time.
Hail (possibly very large) will likely be the initial primary
threat, though some increase in severe-wind potential is possible
with any notable upscale growth. The coverage and timing of the
severe threat remain somewhat uncertain, but watch issuance is
possible later this morning in response to these threats.
..Dean/Guyer.. 06/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32399499 32619762 32909863 33109932 33669935 34189927
34879875 34879688 34279465 33759352 33569326 32969302
32409323 32399499
