MD 1011 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279… FOR ARKLATEX REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Areas affected...ArkLaTex region
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279...
Valid 131302Z - 131430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279
continues.
SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and locally damaging gusts will
continue to spread east-southeast this morning. Local expansion of
WW 279 may be needed.
DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell near the Metroplex has dissipated,
but vigorous storms are persisting this morning closer to the
ArkLaTex region, within an unstable and favorably sheared
environment. Some weakening and veering of the low-level jet is
expected with time this morning, lending some uncertainty regarding
the longevity of severe potential into mid morning. However, with
downstream MUCAPE remaining above 2000 J/kg and favorable deep-layer
flow/shear expected to persist, somewhat organized cells/clusters
may continue southeastward with a hail and damaging wind risk, which
may require local expansion of WW 279 in the short term as storms
move into a larger portion of southern AR and northern LA. The need
for additional downstream watch issuance later this morning remains
uncertain, but will be possible if organized storms persist over the
next 2-3 hours.
..Dean/Guyer.. 06/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 31949342 32279512 32769606 33399651 34039634 33979613
34179383 33919299 33309157 32299136 31889152 31669204
31719264 31949342
