MD 1013 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS/AL…SOUTHWESTERN GA…AND THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern MS/AL...southwestern
GA...and the FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 131601Z - 131830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually intensify through the early
afternoon, while posing some threat for large hail and damaging
winds. Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...Convection has slowly increased in coverage across
central MS into central/southern AL over the past hour or so. This
activity is developing along/near the stalled synoptic front, but
still north of a remnant outflow boundary that is evident in visible
satellite imagery across southern MS/AL. As robust daytime heating
occurs, temperatures should increase into at least the mid to upper
80s, and perhaps lower 90s. A rather moist airmass is also present
along/south of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Moderate to locally strong instability is
forecast to develop by this afternoon across parts of
central/southern MS/AL into southern GA and the FL Panhandle.
Area VWPs indicate weak low-level winds gradually strengthen with
height to around 40-50+ kt at mid/upper levels. This should support
some threat for supercells, although there may also be a tendency
for convection to form into small bowing clusters. As low-level
lapse rates steepen with diurnal heating over the next few hours,
the threat for damaging winds should likewise slowly increase. Large
hail will also be a threat with any supercells that can be
sustained. Current expectations are for the ongoing activity to
gradually strengthen as it spreads east-southeastward through the
early afternoon. Depending on convective trends, one or more Severe
Thunderstorm Watches may eventually be needed.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 31819047 32329042 32408949 32528765 32828681 32738533
32438356 31548316 30928321 30508353 30408428 30668697
31278956 31819047
