MD 1028 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287… FOR ARKLATEX INTO THE ARKLAMISS VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Areas affected...ArkLaTex into the ArkLaMiss vicinity
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287...
Valid 140657Z - 140830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287
continues.
SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and locally damaging gusts will
spread east/southeast overnight. Downstream watch issuance will
eventually need to be considered into west-central MS.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is ongoing early this morning
across the ArkLaTex region, with a notable left-moving supercell
farther north approaching northwest MS. An environment favorable for
organized storms is expected to persist overnight, with MUCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg, effective shear of 50-70 kt, and elongated
hodographs supporting splitting supercells. In the short term, the
most favorable environment is expected to persist near the AR/LA
border, where very large hail will continue to be possible with
slightly elevated supercells. Also, despite the presence of a
near-surface inversion, some threat for damaging winds may also
evolve with time, with the potential for an outflow-driven cluster
to move east-southeastward. Some threat may eventually approach the
MS River near west-central MS, where downstream watch issuance may
need to be considered later this morning.
To the northeast, some severe hail threat may move out of WW 287
with the ongoing left-moving supercell and any additional
left-movers that may develop with time. However, with somewhat
weaker buoyancy in this region, the severe threat may remain rather
isolated into northern MS and western TN, where watch issuance is
currently considered unlikely in the short term.
..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33109480 34789243 34879126 34549074 33899033 32699029
31829080 31919177 32699425 33109480
