MD 1029 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL MS…CENTRAL AL…WEST-CENTRAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 1029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Areas affected...Parts of east-central MS...central
AL...west-central GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 140807Z - 141000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some hail threat may develop through the early morning.
Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, but will be
reevaluated depending on short-term convective trends.
DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently developed from extreme
east-central MS into central AL, within a warm advection regime
associated with a modest southwesterly low-level jet. Rich low-level
moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting
MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg across the region, sufficient for vigorous
updrafts. Strong mid/upper-level flow is supporting effective shear
of 40-50 kt, sufficient for organized convection, and a few cells
have exhibited marginal supercell characteristics.
Coverage of the severe threat remains uncertain early this morning,
with the potential for multiple storm mergers and a complex
convective mode, given the number of storms that have recently
developed. However, any elevated supercells that remain somewhat
discrete could pose a large hail threat through the early morning as
they move east to east-southeastward. A near-surface inversion will
tend to limit severe-wind potential, though locally damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out, especially if any organized clustering occurs
later this morning.
The severe threat may remain rather isolated, and watch issuance is
currently considered unlikely. However, this will be reevaluated if
short-term trends support the potential for multiple mature
supercells emerging out of the ongoing convection later this
morning.
..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...JAN...
LAT...LON 33578844 33428721 33078564 32608435 32198422 31928519
32088601 32458730 32758816 33198866 33578844
