MD 1034 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST/CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1034 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Areas affected...Extreme northeast OK into northwest/central AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141250Z - 141415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A small severe storm cluster may persist through the morning, with a threat of hail and locally damaging gusts. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Immediately in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough across southern KS, a small but intense thunderstorm cluster has persisted this morning across northeast OK, with recent reports of severe gusts and hail. This system may continue to move downstream along the instability gradient into northwest and central AR through the morning, though its longevity is somewhat uncertain since it is following in the immediate wake of another severe storm cluster. The 12Z LZK sounding depicted very favorable deep-layer shear and sufficient buoyancy to maintain a threat of large hail with embedded supercells within the cluster. Any additional upscale growth could result in an increasing severe-wind potential, despite the somewhat elevated nature of the ongoing convection. Watch issuance is possible downstream in order to address these threats. ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 36519482 36029323 35379269 34979299 34999369 35359493 35989554 36519482