MD 1130 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 326… FOR WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Areas affected...western IA and eastern NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326... Valid 172148Z - 172345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326 continues. SUMMARY...The severe-weather threat continues in WW326 across western IA and eastern NE. Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible as storms continue to develop and strengthen this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the last couple of hours across WW326 as a mid-level shortwave overspreads the region. Diurnal heating, warm/moist advection, and steep lapse rates currently support MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Bulk shear has been more limited, around 25 kts per current VAD profiles. However, as the shortwave propagates east-northeastward, 30-40-kt mid-level flow (currently observed at KOAX) will yield gradually strengthening shear profiles. This should support stronger updraft cores with convection developing and maturing in this area over the next couple of hours. The main threats will be isolated damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to around 1.5". The risk for these hazards should peak in the next few hours before sunset and then decrease relatively quickly thereafter as the shortwave overruns any nocturnally diminishing surface instability. ..Flournoy.. 06/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 41879640 42449650 42849610 43349565 43439504 43289440 42619401 41499403 40839420 40669470 40669540 41119611 41879640