MD 1131 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325… FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1131 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Areas affected...Central and North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325... Valid 172151Z - 172345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across the southeast part of WW 325, and spread east and northeastward across north-central Texas over the next few hours. As the storms approach the edge of the watch, new watch issuance will become likely further east across parts of north and central Texas. DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D high-resolution radar from San Angelo shows a cluster of supercells in north-central Texas. The storms are located on the western edge of a broad moist sector. Surface dewpoints across north and central Texas are mostly in the lower to in 70s F, with the RAP analyzing strong instability (MLCAPE from 4000 to 5000 J/kg). These storms are expected to develop east and northeastward along a thermal axis where surface temperatures are in the mid to upper 90s F near and to the south of the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth has a supercell wind profile with 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are very steep, exceeding 9.0 C/km across much of the area. The environment will be favorable for large hail and wind damage, especially with supercells. As cell coverage gradually expands, the wind-damage threat could increase, especially if a cold pool can begin to organize. ..Broyles.. 06/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 32249983 31569961 31429889 31549810 31949758 32709745 33669758 33969820 33839893 33549931 32929964 32249983