MD 1133 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1133
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023
Areas affected...portions of northern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 172229Z - 180030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may persists for a few
hours this evening with a risk for hail and damaging winds. Low
storm coverage and uncertainty on longevity suggest a watch is
unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 2225 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated
thunderstorms have intensified over portions of northern MO in the
last hour. To the south of a remnant MCV over western IA, forcing
for ascent is rather nebulous over much of the region, and storms
are primarily being driven by moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg of
MLCAPE) and afternoon heating. Area VADs show weak shear and storms
will likely remain multicellular given the lack of stronger flow
aloft. There remains some uncertainty on the longevity of any severe
risk given the lack of broader forcing. Regardless, recent reports
of golf ball hail and the presence of strong updrafts in moderate
buoyancy suggests the risk for isolated hail and damaging outflow
winds may persist for a few hours this evening before storms weaken
after sunset. Convective trends will be monitored, but a weather
watch is unlikely.
..Lyons/Grams.. 06/17/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...
LAT...LON 40409291 40099283 39589318 39389352 39199381 39169432
39609491 40229536 40509542 40549495 40569408 40499316
40409291
