MD 1135 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Areas affected...portions of Alabama and Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172253Z - 180100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible across portions of Alabama and Georgia for the next few hours. Sporadic wind gusts and small hail are possible, but the overall severe threat is expected to be relatively low. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development has occurred across portions of Alabama and Georgia, with the strongest storm having traversed Bibb County in the last hour or so. These storms are forming in a northwesterly flow regime and a broad baroclinic zone characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints in the 60s F, increasing to near 70 F with southward extent. Sufficient upper-level flow amidst MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and negligible inhibition has supported a few stronger, more sustained storms in the area. The overall severe threat for these storms, and any that continue to develop, is rather low given weak bulk shear to the north of the mid-level jet. Some threat for severe hazards -- mainly isolated damaging wind gusts and hail -- exists along the southern periphery of the highlighted area (and into WW323), where any storms that develop/persist may interact with a more sheared and unstable airmass. However, ongoing convective trends suggest that the limited shear where updrafts are currently percolating is leading to quick outflow dominance and shorter storm lifetimes. As such, the overall severe threat in this area should remain relatively low for the next couple of hours and further diminish around sunset. ..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... LAT...LON 32258693 32528788 33038813 33548781 33908709 33998644 33848525 33418367 32798288 32208266 31708259 31178269 31008307 31208410 31768555 32258693