MD 1574 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1574
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Areas affected...Portions of southern WI and northern IL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497...
Valid 240705Z - 240830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497
continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe/damaging winds should
continue early this morning.
DISCUSSION...An MCV has developed on the northern flank of a small
cluster of thunderstorms across southern WI/northern IL. A broad
swath of precipitation precedes this cluster associated with strong
southwesterly low-level warm advection, which is hampering recovery
of the low-level airmass. Still, there is a narrow corridor of
sufficient instability ahead of the ongoing activity to support at
least some threat for isolated severe/damaging winds in the short
term, with evidence of enhanced inbound velocities aloft from KMKX.
35-45 kt of deep-layer shear associated with an upper trough over
the Upper Midwest will likely foster continued convective
organization with the MCV/cluster as they move eastward over the
next 1-2 hours. Eventually, this convection should reach a less
favorable airmass towards Lake Michigan, as prior convection has
mostly stabilized low levels.
..Gleason.. 07/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42298979 42628954 43058942 43308961 43578965 43608919
43558848 43178796 42798791 42198806 41928828 42088967
42298979
