MD 1575 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OHIO TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1575
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Areas affected...Northeast Ohio to southwestern New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 241710Z - 241915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the
afternoon hours and will pose a threat for strong to severe winds. A
watch is likely within the next hour.
DISCUSSION...A field of growing cumulus is noted from northeast OH
into northwest PA with a few deeper convective towers becoming
evident, one of which has rapidly intensified within the past 20
minutes. In the absence of stronger surface/low-level forcing, this
activity is likely being fostered by broad ascent ahead of a
mid-level perturbation across the Great Lakes, aided by rapidly
decreasing MLCIN as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s
(based on a modified 15 UTC BUF sounding). While thunderstorm
coverage in the near-term is somewhat uncertain given the weak/broad
forcing for ascent, continued destabilization through the day should
support the maintenance of the deepening convection. Strong winds
(upwards of 40-50 knots) are noted within the lowest 3 km of
regional soundings and VWP observations, which suggests that any
developing storm will pose a strong to severe wind risk. 0-6 km bulk
shear values near 35-40 knots will support storm organization,
including the potential for supercells capable of large hail. A
watch will likely be needed within the hour to address this concern
as addition thunderstorms mature through the early afternoon.
..Moore/Guyer.. 07/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41298220 41928080 42707883 42897742 42567674 41897643
41327665 40967736 40797928 40788068 40898179 41048215
41298220
