MD 1578 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN IL INTO CENTRAL IN AND WESTERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1578
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Areas affected...southern IL into central IN and western OH
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242038Z - 242245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage should gradually increase through
the evening. Storms may produce strong to severe gusts into this
evening.
DISCUSSION...Some modest increase in convection has been noted over
western IN/eastern IL the past 30 minutes or so. This activity is
increasing along a differential heating zone where bands of clouds
and showers have been ongoing for much of the day. Visible satellite
imagery also indicated some vertically developing cumulus from
central IN west/southwest into east-central MO. As the surface cold
front, extending from western Lower MI through central IL/MO
continues to shift east/southeast through the evening, additional
convection is expected to develop. While cloud cover has limited
heating across parts of the region, surface dewpoints in the 70s
beneath modest midlevel lapse rates are contributing to moderate to
strong instability. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt
should allow for organized cells/clusters mainly capable of
producing strong to severe gusts.
A couple rounds of convection are possible into the evening hours,
with activity now increasing producing one round of convection
before additional storms develop along the advancing cold front in a
few hours. Given some uncertainty convective evolution/timing over
the next couple of hours, trends will be monitored and a watch may
be needed for portions of the MCD area in the next few hours.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39048935 39968794 40148769 40938614 41228524 41198482
41048449 40708435 40268439 39808459 39398490 38918596
38688711 38188866 38198928 38488961 39048935
