MD 1583 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1583
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Areas affected...Parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 250243Z - 250445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts will be possible as a line of
storms moves from eastern Colorado into parts of western Kansas
tonight. A watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is tracking eastward at around 30 kt
across parts of eastern CO toward western KS, with recent
intensification/organization evident. The GLD VWP shows 30-35 kt of
0-6 km bulk shear oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge gust
front. This deep-shear orientation, combined with moist/deep
easterly inflow (lower/middle 60s dewpoints) is supporting
deep/persistent updrafts which are keeping pace with the outflow
boundary. The primary concern continues to be severe gusts up to 70
mph, though a brief mesovortex tornado cannot be entirely ruled out
given the shear/cold pool balance and expanding low-level hodographs
within the inflow area of the MCS.
While increasing nocturnal boundary-layer stability casts
uncertainty on the surface-based severe threat over western KS,
strong to severe gusts appear possible owing to the
already-established cold pool.
..Weinman/Hart.. 07/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 37530166 37530200 38030276 38360289 38710280 39160232
39210198 39230164 39230118 39000076 38830064 38360056
37880063 37610108 37530166
