MD 1588 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022
Areas affected...far eastern PA and northern NJ into southern New
England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 251525Z - 251700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms coverage and intensity is expected to
increase over the next 1-2 hours from eastern PA and northern NJ
into southern New England. Damaging gusts and hail are the main
hazards expected with this activity.
DISCUSSION...Convection is rapidly increasing in intensity late this
morning. Broken cloudiness has allowed temperatures to warm into the
80s amid 70s surface dewpoints. This is aiding in moderate
instability across the region amid strong southwesterly vertical
shear ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings
and regional VWP data suggest wind profiles favorable for supercells
and line segments. Steepening low-level lapse rates and
strengthening 0-3 km MLCAPE will support strong gusts with this
activity. Meanwhile, modest midlevel lapse rates and elongated
hodographs above 3 km may support sporadic large hail with stronger
semi-discrete cells. Favorable low-level shear and somewhat small,
but favorably curved low-level hodographs also will support a risk
for a tornado given a very moist boundary-layer and increasing
low-level vorticity along/just ahead of the surface cold front,
though damaging gusts are expected to be the main hazard.
Given recent increase in convective intensity and expected increase
in thunderstorm coverage with time into early afternoon, a watch
will likely be needed in the next hour or so.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 40657273 40377382 40377443 40467500 40557538 40707550
40847550 41047532 41847445 42477376 42827306 43477173
43547149 43537119 43457086 43307057 43087044 42507051
41807103 41107189 40657273
