MD 0160 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF LA…WESTERN MS…AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Areas affected...Portions of LA...western MS...and extreme southeastern AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161354Z - 161600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A risk for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail should gradually increase this morning. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal convection has gradually increased over the past hour across parts of southern LA. The 12Z observed sounding from LCH indicates that minimal convective inhibition remains across this area, with around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE present. Deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will easily support organized thunderstorms. This region will remain on the southern fringe of appreciable large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough/low over the southern/central Plains. But, some forcing for ascent attendant to a 30-35 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is present over the warm sector. It remains unclear whether the ongoing convection will appreciably strengthen over the next 1-2 hours given weak forcing. Still, there appears to be some chance that the ongoing activity could develop into supercells and pose a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail this morning. While not immediately likely, watch issuance before 16Z (10 AM CST) is possible, and will be highly dependent on observational trends. ..Gleason/Edwards.. 02/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30329206 30729289 31229260 31569236 33149207 33289183 33289111 33029058 32369048 31009076 30339137 30329206