MD 1611 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1611 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Areas affected...southern Arkansas northwest Mississippi and extreme northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291924Z - 292130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may congeal into a loosely organized cluster this afternoon and evening. Occasional down bursts and damaging wind gusts will be possible as storms propagate south and east. A weather watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, scattered to numerous thunderstorms were ongoing along and near a composite front/outflow boundary across the ArkLaTex. Driven mostly by differential heating within weak ascent near the boundary, a few stronger multi-cell clusters are possible with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE present from SPC mesoanalysis. Additional storm development in the uninhibited and strongly unstable airmass appears likely through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. While broader organization is unlikely, some clustering of the stronger cells may support an occasional water-loaded downdraft capable of damaging wind gusts given the high PWAT (2+ inches) airmass. This scenario is reflected in the latest HRRR guidance which does show some potential for a loosely organized southeastward propagating cluster this afternoon. However, given the very limited effective shear (less than 20 kt), any severe potential will likely be short lived and localized. The lack of greater storm organization and severe potential suggests a weather watch is unlikely. ..Lyons/Grams.. 07/29/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34169398 34219193 34259130 34289077 34199015 33848964 33628967 33168991 33019032 32989090 32939222 32999318 33359396 33449416 34169398