MD 1613 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA…NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022
Areas affected...southern Nevada...northwestern Arizona and far
southwest Utah
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 292038Z - 292245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...High-based storm clusters may pose a risk for isolated
strong to severe gusts into this evening. A weather watch is
unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Beneath a strong mid-level anticyclone evident on
western US moisture channel imagery, scattered monsoon thunderstorms
were observed across much of the Desert Southwest. Over the last
hour, additional development and some clustering of these storms has
taken place near the UT/NV border. High-based with prominent
inverted-v structures evident on area RAOBS/model soundings, a few
stronger downdrafts may emerge with the potential for occasional
strong to severe wind gusts into this evening. Overall storm
organization potential appears low given weak flow beneath the ridge
and 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis. Hi-res guidance
does show additional development/clustering may take place
especially across far southern NV into northwestern AZ. However, the
severe threat here will likely remain localized due to the lack of
greater effective shear and a disorganized multi-cell storm mode.
Thus, while a few stronger gusts are possible into this evening, a
weather watch is not anticipated.
..Lyons/Grams.. 07/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...
LAT...LON 37541338 35761366 35081400 34871433 35031497 35541563
36011615 36351659 37081684 37541660 38041570 38031464
37941390 37541338
