MD 1618 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Areas affected...much of North Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302252Z - 310045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple bouts of severe hail/wind may briefly accompany
one of the stronger storms at peak intensity. A WW issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...A 500 mb vort max overspreading the northern Plains, in
tandem with peak heating, has supported convective initiation across
central ND near a differential moist boundary. Meanwhile, strong
thunderstorms have organized immediately ahead of a cold front
across far southeast SK and these storms may graze far northwest ND
over the next few hours. A seasonably moist and unstable warm sector
resides ahead of these storms, with upper 60s F dewpoints and 9+
C/km 0-3km lapse rates contributing to 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE. While this
thermodynamic profile would support a severe hail/wind threat with
organized thunderstorms, deep-layer shear is quite weak. As such,
storms are expected to mainly percolate in intensity, with brief
instances of severe wind/hail possible at a storm's peak intensity.
Given the isolated, brief nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance
appears unlikely.
..Squitieri.. 07/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...
LAT...LON 49020409 49029985 48779885 48219836 47629839 47419841
47169860 46609988 46590128 46710192 47070265 47510338
48170391 48340408 49020409
