MD 1619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EAST NC…FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022
Areas affected...Central/East NC...Far South-Central/Southeast VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 311638Z - 311915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Multicell thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts
will persist across the region through the afternoon. Additionally,
a supercell or two is possible later this afternoon, with an
attendant risk of damaging wind gust and/or a brief tornado.
DISCUSSION...The air mass across north-central/northeast NC and
adjacent portions of far south-central/southeast VA has quickly
destabilized amid filtered diurnal heating and ample low-level
moisture. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase
over the next few hours, as modest low-level convergence persists
near and south of the wavy warm front extending from south-central
VA into far northeast NC. Much of this thunderstorm activity will
occur south of the stronger mid-level flow, limiting the deep-layer
vertical shear and likely leading to a predominantly multicellular,
outflow-dominant storm mode. Primary severe risk with any of these
storms is water-loaded downbursts.
Later this afternoon, ascent may be augmented slightly by the
shortwave trough moving through the Upper OH Valley. This shortwave
will also contribute to a modest increase in the mid-level flow.
While still favorable mostly multicells, these condition could also
support a supercell or two. Primary risk would continue to be
damaging wind gust, although a brief tornado or two could also
occur.
..Mosier/Grams.. 07/31/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
LAT...LON 34637776 35357923 35767997 36437998 36927923 36867767
36677674 36367582 35607564 34697624 34637776
