MD 1625 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN IL…SOUTHERN IN…SOUTHERN OH…NORTHERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 1625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Areas affected...Southern IL...Southern IN...Southern OH...Northern
KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 012007Z - 012200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
anticipated this afternoon and evening across the OH Valley. Trends
are being monitored for potential watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and visible satellite
imagery place an outflow boundary from central IL eastward across
central IN and into southern OH. Air mass in the vicinity and south
of this boundary continues to destabilize, with little to no
convective inhibition remaining per the latest mesoanalysis. Warm
and moist surface conditions, coupled with relatively cool mid-level
temperatures, are supporting moderate to strong buoyancy across the
region. The strongest instability is across southern IL, where
temperatures have reached the upper 80s/low 90s amid mid 70s
dewpoints. Current mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is over 3500 J/kg
across all of southern IL. Instability gradually decreases with
eastern extent, coincident with decreasing temperatures and
dewpoints. Even so, MLCAPE is still estimated to be around 1500-2000
J/kg across southern OH. Moderate vertical shear also exists across
this region, with effective bulk shear ranging from 35 kt over
southern IL to 45 kt over southern OH.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated within this environment
along the outflow boundary this afternoon and evening. Modest
convergence along the boundary and remnant convective inhibition has
limited convective initiation thus far. However, convective
inhibition has eroded and a modest increase in ascent associated
with the approaching shortwave trough should lead to an increase in
thunderstorm development. Given the environment, any storms that do
develop will likely be strong to severe, with damaging downburst
winds as the primary threat. Any supercells that develop could also
product hail and maybe even a brief tornado.
..Mosier/Grams.. 08/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39038882 38978711 39258523 39648350 39298301 38388309
37868407 37338627 37478811 38128880 39038882
