MD 1628 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508…509… FOR LOWER TO MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Areas affected...Lower to Middle OH River Valley
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508...509...
Valid 020052Z - 020245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508, 509
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind/hail continues across WW 508
and 509, with the greatest near-term risk across southeast IL into
far northwest KY and far southwest IN. The severe potential is
becoming more conditional across southern IN, northern KY, and
southwest OH.
DISCUSSION...The cluster of thunderstorms across the IL/IN/KY
tri-state region has become outflow dominant with a prominent cold
pool apparent on regional radar imagery. Lift atop the western edge
of the cold pool is promoting continued regeneration of deep
convection with many towers showing periods of strong cloud top
cooling and lightning jumps. This region will likely continue to see
additional development along the periphery of the cold pool for the
next hour or so, which will maintain the potential for severe hail,
and perhaps isolated severe winds.
To the east into southern IN, northern KY, and southwest OH, early
convection has diminished in intensity and coverage, likely owing to
a combination of weakening forcing for ascent (convergence along the
surface boundary has weakened over the past hour) and destructive
storm interference. Consequently, the near-term severe potential has
decreased. However, a mid-level shortwave trough across northern IN
continues to approach the region. Evidence of lift associated with
this feature is noted across northwest OH, and may be sufficient to
support additional thunderstorm development during the 01-03 UTC
time frame. Confidence in this potential is modest, but
thunderstorms that do develop may pose a severe wind/hail risk given
the favorable parameter space.
..Moore.. 08/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38908876 39328840 39678660 39858477 39758310 39388256
38708253 38338306 38298387 38398488 38108593 37698660
37448717 37288790 37418850 37838879 38288886 38908876
