MD 1632 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1632 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Areas affected...Parts of the western Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022139Z - 022315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic marginal hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible as convection continues spreading across the western Florida Peninsula this afternoon. A watch is not needed. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from TBW/MFL shows diurnally-driven convection spreading slowly westward across parts of the western Florida Peninsula this afternoon. An upper-level low evident in water vapor imagery north of the Bahamas is contributing to seasonably steep midlevel lapse rates and enhanced anvil-level northerly flow. These factors, coupled with deep tropospheric moisture (PWs near 2.0 in) and steepened boundary-layer lapse rates could support marginal hail and locally damaging wet downbursts with the stronger pulsating updrafts for next couple hours. However, minimal cloud-layer shear will limit overall convective organization outside of local congealing of cold pools -- precluding the need for a watch. ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 25778136 25918174 26298198 26508225 27568281 27948290 28418277 29118280 29358230 29258180 28698167 28198154 27878147 27378147 27008145 26608139 26208110 25948106 25778136