MD 1636 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512… FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1636 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Areas affected...Parts of northern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512... Valid 030301Z - 030430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512 in northern Wisconsin. The primary concern continues to be damaging winds, though isolated large hail and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from DLH shows an organized MCS tracking southeastward at around 30 kt across parts of northern Wisconsin. Within the pre-convective environment, a strongly unstable airmass driven by lower 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (per the 00Z DVN/GRB soundings) is supporting deep/persistent updrafts along the consolidated east/west-oriented outflow boundary. The strongest instability is located ahead of the western portion of this MCS -- where transient supercell structures have been developing. Regional VWP data depicts around 50 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear oriented oblique to the leading-edge gust front, which should continue to yield a predominantly linear mode and the potential for damaging gusts where downdrafts can penetrate the boundary layer. However, the presence of large, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs will still support embedded supercell structures, and isolated large hail and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While recent reports have generally been sparse and only consisted of marginally severe hail, it is possible that the damaging-wind threat could still increase with southward extent -- especially with any north/south-oriented segments that can develop. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45879143 46139008 46158971 45978925 45588897 44938912 44588974 44619148 44879262 45529282 45929225 45879143