MD 0164 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 38… FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023
Areas affected...southern Mississippi into west-central Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 38...
Valid 161737Z - 161900Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 38 continues.
SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to organize with tornado potential
gradually increasing through the early afternoon. A corridor of
higher tornado potential may evolve from southeastern MS into
west-central AL later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, radar imagery has shown
gradual organization of a few supercells over portions of southern
MS. Surface obs and PERILS experimental soundings have shown steady
airmass modification and boundary-layer destabilization from
southerly low-level advection and cloud breaks within the overlying
stratus deck. As temperatures warm into the mid 70s F, increasing
theta-E will likely allow for continued intensification of ongoing
storms and the development of additional convection in the vicinity.
Area VADs show robust low-level shear profiles that have improved
over time, with 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, supportive of low-level
mesocyclones. As supercells mature, the tornado threat should
gradually increase through the early afternoon over southern MS. A
corridor of enhanced tornado potential may evolve into portions of
west-central AL later this afternoon as the current supercells shift
eastward.
While timing of any downstream watches remains a bit uncertain owing
to recent convective imitation near the AL/MS border, a few hours
will likely be needed for updrafts to organize to pose a substantial
tornado threat. HRRR trends suggest the supercells moving out of
southern MS remain the primary threat in the coming hours. However,
convective trends will be monitored for any intensification or new
convective development farther east into AL.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/16/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30969104 31169135 31459137 31879129 32679056 33268939
33348881 33328822 33288767 33208755 32978750 32668764
31898813 31538844 31288885 31128923 31068958 30999011
30969104
