MD 0165 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023
Areas affected...portions of western and central Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 161917Z - 162045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The tornado threat will likely increase through the
afternoon into this evening with supercells moving out of eastern
MS. A new Tornado Watch will likely be needed by 20z.
DISCUSSION...As of 1910 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered
thunderstorms ongoing across portions of central and southeastern
MS, into portions of western AL. Additional warm-sector storms were
forming along the MS/AL border region. Gradual intensification in
lightning has been noted over the past couple of hours, suggesting a
slow increase in severe potential. While storms have been slow to
organize thus far, persistent mid-level mesocyclones within a moist,
unstable and strongly sheared environment (100-200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH)
continue to suggest the possibility of tornadoes with supercell
structures. Damaging wind gusts may also become a threat given the
clustered nature of the current storms. With the potential for
supercells to persist, and additional storms to develop, within the
strongly sheared warm sector, a new Tornado Watch will be needed
across parts of AL this afternoon.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/16/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...
LAT...LON 32628836 33748824 34288808 34338641 34228597 33838581
33448596 33078613 32348660 31228755 31218841 31918842
32628836
