MD 0166 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 39… FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA
Mesoscale Discussion 0166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Areas affected...the Tennessee Valley area Concerning...Tornado Watch 39... Valid 162002Z - 162200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 39 continues. SUMMARY...Severe potential -- including local tornado risk -- is evident across WW 39. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that storms have increased in intensity across the area, coincident with gradual/modest destabilization -- indicated by RAP-based objective analysis and confirmed by 18Z BNA RAOB revealing roughly 300 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. While instability remains modest, very strong shear is indicated, with low-level south-southwesterly flow veering rapidly and increasing to 55 kt at roughly 1.5km per the BNA RAOB, resulting in intense low-level shear. Within the past hour, storms seem to have responded to the increasingly favorable overall environment, with rotating storms now indicated over eastern Humphreys County Tennessee (which will move into Dickson County shortly), and across McNairy County Tennessee and adjacent Tippah and Alcorn Counties in Mississippi. Expect severe weather potential -- including accompanying tornado risk -- to continue over the next couple of hours. ..Goss.. 02/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33848978 35838829 36658675 37098596 36898526 36338500 34378669 33698854 33848978