MD 1660 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1660 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062048Z - 062245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk of isolated large hail and locally severe gusts will increase through the afternoon. Current thinking is that the severe threat could remain too isolated for a watch, though trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Along and west of the Laramie Mountains in southeast WY, visible satellite imagery shows an expanding/deepening cumulus field amid veered surface winds -- indicative of deep boundary-layer mixing/destabilization. Within the deeply mixed airmass, isolated convective development is underway over Natrona County, and 40-50 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear (per the RIW VWP) is already supporting supercellular characteristics with this activity. As the steep low-level lapse rates associated with the diurnally deepening boundary layer continue to impinge on recycled moisture (upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints) and east-southeasterly upslope flow over eastern WY, convective intensity/coverage should gradually increase through the afternoon. Long/generally straight hodographs and weak large-scale ascent should initially support discrete/semi-discrete splitting supercells with a risk of large hail and severe gusts given a deep sub-cloud layer and modest midlevel lapse rates. With time, continued cell splits/mergers and a modest increase in large-scale ascent ahead of a weak midlevel wave could favor increasing convective coverage. Currently, it is unclear if the severe risk will warrant a watch, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/06/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 42310564 42650625 42760680 42740732 42880776 43290770 43570737 44140639 44110562 43910499 43550468 43060454 42100432 41090431 41040466 41120498 41510517 41930538 42310564