MD 1661 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022
Areas affected...Upper Mississippi Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 062219Z - 070015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convection is expected over the next
several hours. Wind is the most likely threat with this activity.
DISCUSSION...Remnants of early-day MCS that spread across the upper
MS Valley have progressed into northern WI. Scattered convection
trails along the southwestern flank of this longer-lived activity
across southern MN into northwestern IA where some increase in
updraft strength is currently noted over Palo Alto County IA. While
the primary short-wave trough has ejected northeast of this region,
stalled surface boundary draped from near EAU-RST-AXA will likely
provide the focus for potential robust convection this evening.
Given the lack of large-scale support, nocturnal increase in LLJ
into this boundary after sunset is expected to aid an
upward-evolving complex of storms that will likely propagate toward
southwest WI.
..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/06/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43459473 44499224 44449068 42989076 42679339 42399503
43459473
