MD 0169 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 40… FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0556 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Areas affected...parts of east central and southeastern Mississippi and western/central Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 40... Valid 162356Z - 170200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity has tended to generally weaken the past few hours. However, isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development, potentially capable of producing tornadoes, remains possible into this evening, mainly across parts of southeastern Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Trajectories emanating from surface ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical western Atlantic continue to maintain drier near-surface air as far west as southeastern into central Alabama. At the same time, warm mid-level layers persist, with some warming possible during the next few hours, in the wake of one weak mid-level perturbation progressing northeastward toward the Cumberland Plateau, within broader scale anticyclonic flow on the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridging. With the upstream cold front advancing slowly eastward as well, the pre-frontal plume of moist, potentially unstable boundary-layer air is narrowing. In conjunction with these trends, both the pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm development has tended to weaken during the past few hours, and the remnant precipitation associated with the pre-frontal convection is tending to stabilize the boundary-layer ahead of the cold front. With cooling aloft generally lagging well to the west, potential for substantive re-intensification of ongoing convection seems low at the present time. However, wind fields remain at least conditionally supportive of supercells posing a risk for producing tornadoes, and at least pockets of appreciable boundary-layer may persist another couple of hours, particularly around the Hattiesburg, MS area. ..Kerr.. 02/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 33408825 34148716 33638619 31888703 30538770 30188908 30959008 33408825