MD 0171 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF PA…MD…DE…AND NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 0171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023
Areas affected...Parts of PA...MD...DE...and NJ
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 211901Z - 212000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Low-topped convection across parts of Pennsylvania,
Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey this afternoon may produce a
damaging gust or two and some sub-severe hail. A watch is not
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Showers with embedded low-topped convection are ongoing
across southeast Pennsylvania this afternoon. Some breaks in the
clouds ahead of this activity are apparent on visible satellite, and
surface temperatures have warmed into the 50s to near 60F.
Mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecast soundings show weak,
relatively shallow buoyancy, with MLCAPE in the 100-300 J/kg range,
and steep lapse rates. Hodographs in the region are generally
straight, though with appreciable deep-layer shear (40-50 kts of
effective bulk shear).
As time progresses, expect increased convective development given
the surface heating. Given the strong low-level flow (50 kts at 850
mb), cells have the potential to produce a damaging gust or two.
Additionally, due to the steep lapse rates and straight hodographs,
the stronger cells may produce some sub-severe hail. Expect the
convection to move eastward off the Delaware and New Jersey coasts
by 22-23Z.
..Supinie/Weinman/Guyer.. 02/21/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38837725 39297742 40017740 40377727 40777708 40947668
40937641 40927578 40827533 40757493 40197422 39857402
39487409 39167440 38907477 38667509 38577535 38507584
38477626 38707698 38837725
