MD 0199 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN TO EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CST Sat Mar 05 2022 Areas affected...southwestern to east-central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 060125Z - 060300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging wind gusts may increase over the next couple of hours, which could warrant WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a narrow, frontal band of convection moving across western Missouri at this time, with a portion of this band extending south of Tornado Watch 28. While an increasingly anafrontal character is expected to evolve with southward extent into the Ozark Plateau later this evening/overnight, some potential for damaging winds is apparent just south of WW 28/29, given ample instability in tandem with very strong lower and mid-level winds across the area. This potential is hinted at by RUC-based guidance valid over the next few hours. With the degree and coverage of wind potential a concern, the need for WW issuance likely remains a bit uncertain. We will continue to monitor convective evolution, with respect to potential need for a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Goss/Thompson.. 03/06/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37609455 38399347 39379154 39379086 38659040 37789155 37199369 37119460 37609455