MD 0203 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Mar 05 2022 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Lower Michigan into northern and western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 060553Z - 060700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across Illinois and western Lake Michigan may continue to pose local risk for damaging winds as they move into southwestern Lower Michigan and western Indiana. New WW issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop continues to show a band of thunderstorms moving eastward at around 50kt, across Illinois and western Lake Michigan. Instability continues to diminish with time, and also with eastward extent per RUC-based objective analysis, and diminishing lightning flash counts support this. With that said, very strong flow aloft is supporting not only rapid storm motion, but damaging surface wind gusts as well -- with several measured gusts near and above severe criteria across parts of northern Illinois over the past half hour. As such, despite increasingly unfavorable thermodynamics, severe-caliber wind gusts may remain possible locally for another couple of hours as storms move into southwestern Lower Michigan and western Indiana. This may warrant consideration of new WW issuance prior to the top of the hour. ..Goss/Thompson.. 03/06/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 42348761 43048582 42868515 40668535 39168737 39358748 39588804 40628793 41528752 42348761