MD 0214 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN AR…WESTERN TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022
Areas affected...Eastern AR...Western TN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 070644Z - 070815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards may
begin to develop across eastern AR
DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms moving across south-central AR
has recently shown a trend towards intensification and organization
over the last half hour or so, particularly with the storm moving
out of Ouachita into Calhoun, Dallas, and Cleveland counties. The
thermodynamic environment downstream is characterized by
temperatures in the mid 70s, dewpoints in the lower 60s, and MLCAPE
near 1000 J/kg. Stronger buoyancy is currently being limited by warm
temperatures and weak lapse rates. In contrast to the modest
thermodynamics, the kinematic environment remains impressive. Recent
KLZK VAD profile sampled 50+ kt around 0-1 km AGL and almost 300
m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity.
As a result, the conditions downstream appear supportive of severe
thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes.
Overall coverage of severe storms remains uncertain but trends will
be monitored closely for possible watch issuance.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/07/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33149327 34699203 35889073 35858931 34229010 33179125
33149327
