MD 0219 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF AL INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN GA…EASTERN TN…AND WESTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Mon Mar 07 2022
Areas affected...Portions of AL into western/northern GA...eastern
TN...and western NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 071920Z - 072145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging winds and perhaps a brief
tornado may occur this afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at
this time.
DISCUSSION...A line of shallow convection along/near a cold front
will continue moving eastward across the Southeast this afternoon.
While a moist low-level airmass is present ahead of this line across
AL/GA, multiple inversions and poor lapse rates aloft are limiting
instability, with MLCAPE mostly 750 J/kg or less across the warm
sector. With additional modest diurnal heating this afternoon,
MLCAPE has locally increased up to around 1000 J/kg across parts of
southern AL. Enough deep-layer shear is present to support storm
organization, but low-level flow is expected to continue
weakening/veering as the primary upper trough moves northeastward
and away from the Southeast. Still, in the short term, there may be
a window of opportunity for isolated strong to damaging winds to
occur with small bowing segments in the line. Occasional weak
low-level rotation has also been noted with convective elements over
the past couple of hours, and a brief tornado remains possible. The
overall severe threat should remain rather isolated this afternoon.
..Gleason/Hart.. 03/07/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31538759 32228796 33568626 34148565 35048473 35728410
36178362 36408330 36468269 36238196 35478236 34878283
33658391 32358505 31168635 31538759
