MD 0224 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37…38… FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND…FAR NORTHERN DELAWARE…EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA…SOUTHEAST NEW YORK…NEW JERSEY…WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…WESTERN CONNECTICUT
Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Mon Mar 07 2022
Areas affected...parts of northeast Maryland...far northern
Delaware...eastern Pennsylvania...southeast New York...New
Jersey...western Massachusetts...western Connecticut
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 37...38...
Valid 080042Z - 080215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 37, 38
continues.
SUMMARY...A low-topped squall line will exit Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 037 shortly and progress across the remainder of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 038 over the next couple of hours. Damaging gusts
remain possible across all of the watch areas.
DISCUSSION...A narrow, low-topped squall line continues across
central NY into PA with a steady flow of reports of wind damage and
near-severe measured gusts being received. Modest low-level lapse
rates persist across far eastern PA into NJ, while weaker lapse
rates/cooler surface temperatures remain in place across southeast
New York. Nonetheless, strong synoptic forcing for ascent along the
surface trough axis and kinematics ahead of the squall are promoting
enough mechanical mixing along the squall's leading line for both
continued maintenance and strong/occasionally damaging gusts.
Despite evening stabilization, damaging gusts are expected to
accompany the squall across the Hudson Valley for at least a couple
more hours. However, stabilization is expected to increase further
east across New England, which may dampen mechanical mixing and
reduce the damaging gust threat to a degree. As such, the current
thinking is that a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch across New
England is unlikely.
..Squitieri/Kerr.. 03/08/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39777735 41857595 42997488 43177451 43107338 42797269
42517241 42027248 41387308 40607361 39487416 39007456
38997489 39357625 39777735
